The Power Veeps
June 1, 2008 11:14 pm 2008 Race, Democrats, McCain, Obama, RepublicansWith the Republican nomination settled on John McCain and the Democratic nomination about settled for Barack Obama, political coverage is slowly pivoting to the picks of the Vice-Presidential candidates.
Vice-Presidential nominees are overblown as their impact is limited. Some of the biggest mistakes in Veep-picking have come when candidates have over-reached. Few Veeps can take a state you’ll get shellacked in and turn it into a win. Expectations of Michael Dukakis carrying Texas with Senator Lloyd Bentsen on the ticket in 1988 were absurd, ditto John Kerry’s hopes of carrying North Carolina, Senator John Edwards’ home state, in 2008.
Veep picks help you at the margins, with people who are ambiguous towards your ticket, or they turn some people who would merely vote for you into activists by energizing the base, or a Veep can make up for some deficiency in your ticket. Some Vice-Presidents don’t really do much for the ticket (Dan Quayle ’88, Geraldine Ferraro ’84, Sargent Shriver ’72.) but neither Obama or McCain can afford one of those.
McCain
Most of the McCain’s potential veeps really bring nothing to the ticket. Governors Bobby Jindal and Mark Sanford don’t add a whole lot to the ticket. They’ll assure a small cadre of fiscal conservatives cast a vote for McCain. That’ll be about it. It’s doubtful they’ll even be able to negate the limited effects of Bob Barr. Rob Portman brings nada to the ticket other than perhaps an enhanced standing in Portman’s already Republican Congressional district in Ohio.
Mitt Romney as VP could make Michigan competitive and without Michigan, Obama probably doesn’t win the presidency. On the other hand, he’s not trusted by many conservatives. His oily image on board the “straight talk express” wouldn’t be great for McCain’s image.
Governor Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) presents an intriguing choice. Palin could help McCain with women disenchanted with Hillary Clinton not being the Democratic nominee. Palin is also pro-life and not just when its convenient, she recently gave birth to a baby with downs syndrome, and chose life over abortion. Palin’s real life living out of her convictions is something that would be respected.
Palin is also an Evangelical Christian who is more comfortable talking about her faith. She’s a solid record on government reform, heading up efforts to clean up Alaska’s GOP. On the negative side, Palin’s experience is limited and, like Jindal, she’s not well-known. Her rise in a little more than 2 years from former Mayor of Wasila, Alaska to a heartbeat from the Presidency may be a tad much for some people.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee faces well-known negatives: many establishment conservatives don’t like him and have issues with his policies in Arkansas. However, what Huckabee brings to the ticket is organization.
Huckabee would bring several thousand volunteers to a campaign that lacks organization, as well as potentially activate a base of voters that can take or leave that whole voting thing. McCain is going to be running behind in money and professional organization. Who can help him counter that? How about a guy who won eight primary states on $16 million?
Huckabee has been caricaturized as a Southern candidate, but is more of a heartland candidate. McCain/Huckabee could challenge Obama in Iowa, hold the bellwether state of Missouri, and also increase turnout in key areas of Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. However, McCain’s recent attack on two reverends who endorsed him may have limited his ability to turn out religious conservatives regardless of his running mate.
Moderate choices, such as Tom Ridge, don’t really add to the nomination and are going to deepen dissatisfaction from the base without really adding anything.
Obama
Barack Obama has two deficiencies: a lack of foreign policy experience and a lack of executive experience. General historic trends would suggest a Democratic win in 2008, with an unpopular war and a down economy. What Obama must do is convince voters in Red States that it’s “okay” to support a Democrat.
Obama has four options that do this. None of them are Hillary Clinton. While Mrs. Clinton would strengthen Obama with some Democrats, I remain dubious that she’ll attract people who wouldn’t vote for Obama to the ticket. Many of these diehards voted for her as an anti-Obama vote, not a pro-Clinton vote. Her personal negatives in polls are somewhat lower than Osama bin Laden’s and the that’s nicest thing I can think of to say about her rating.
From New Mexico, Governor Bill Richardson (D) could be a winner for the Obama camp, as he brings foreign policy experience (former UN Ambassador), and executive experience (Governor and Secretary of Energy), along with a 14-year congressional career. Richardson would, at the very least, guarantee Obama the swing states of New Mexico and Colorado. He’d also help Obama with Hispanics, who McCain is trying to make a play for and who Clinton tried to turn into a wedge constituency.
Beyond Richardson, Obama could pick one of three Virginians.
The strongest of the three would be Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican and Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan. Webb’s national security bonafides would help the inexperienced Obama in the same way Dick Cheney helped George W. Bush.
After that, former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA), who many thought of as a presidential candidate, would re-assure moderates and provide executive experience to the ticket. The negative is Warner would have to leave the Virginia Senate race he’s a shoo in for and that would allow Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) to hold the seat for Republicans, but if it’s necessary for a Democratic win, I think Virginian Democrats would trade a Senate seat for the presidency.
Finally, Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) is the least of the three Virginians, without the stature of Warner, but he could deliver Virginia.
An Obama victory in Virginia would be huge. No Democrat has won it since LBJ in 1964. Virginia has 13 electoral votes and any of these three could help with the nearby state of Ohio as well as bolster Obama’s hopes in North Carolina.
Another possibility for VP would be Senator Robert Casey (R-PA). Casey would help with white working class Democrats in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But as one of the few Senators with less experience than Obama, it’s really an open question as to whether Casey would help across America.
Additionally, if Obama decides luring disenchanted Republicans is key, he could also ask Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) who would have similar benefits to Webb, but might tick off more members of his party base.
Casey, Hagel, and Kaine would represent a problem for many feminists who backed Clinton as all three are pro-life, but Obama would comfort moderate pro-lifers with a gesture meant to illustrate that he’s serious about his respect for those who disagree with him. A Casey nomination would be particularly poignant as Bill Clinton’s decision to bar Casey from the 1992 Democratic Convention began a steady exodus of pro-life Democrats from the party. However, the risk may not make it worth it.
The strongest overall candidates are Richardson, Webb, and Warner in that order. If Obama chooses any of those three, I’ll be 100% sure he’ll be the next president.
June 1st, 2008 at 11:33 pm
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June 1st, 2008 at 11:34 pm
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June 1st, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Re Jindal vs. Palin for McCain: There’s been noted buzz of late on rising GOP star Louisiana Gov Bobby Jindal as a McCain prospective Veep. Certainly Jindal is more than very good, However, I believe there’s some “strategerie” going on here. The “real” beneficiary of the Jindal talk is the other rising GOP star, Alaska Gov Sarah Palin. Palin’s got everything that Jindal has (new/exciting, wildly popular, ethics and spending reformer, core conservative etc.) and more — mother of 5 w/remarkable bio, she’s 8 yrs older than Jindal, Alaska energy issue, and set to garner the disenfranchised female Hillary voter (I don’t believe Dem leaders can dump Obama).
Getting Jindal’s name out first — at Team McCain’s BBQ for instance — sets the stage for the obvious choice, Palin. For example, albeit Rush Limbaugh introduced Palin’s name, and later Jindal’s as good Veep choices, of late Rush has been praising the name of Jindal while on his very same shows discussing at great length the frustrated female Hillary voter and the global warming hysteria/need for energy development, without mentioning Palin’s name as the obvious beneficiary of those two issues. Rush walks a fine line, introducing Palin, yet can’t, at least yet, reiterate much, knowing that his praises may be counter-productive to many a swing, moderate and/or formerly Dem voter (who’s against Obama and switching to McCain). Moreover, while I feel that Palin has more real accomplishment, experience and qualification than Obama (and Hillary combined, albeit w/Obama the bar is pretty low), the only potential argument against Palin is she’s a newbie to the national scene. By having Jindal out there first as a VP prospect “passing” the “experience” and “new to the national scene” test, implicitly passes Palin as well. (For that matter Palin’s got as much if not more experience and accomplishment than Florida Gov Crist who’s only been Gov for 2 yrs — and the media has been touting Crist as a VP prospect.)
That’s my thinking at least.
June 2nd, 2008 at 12:02 am
But McCain needs to move quickly on Palin. If it looks like it’s going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a “no brainer” for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There’s currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows — even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick — selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin’s own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there’s absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!
There’s no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real ‘change’ (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.
In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain’s age and health, Palin is more than perfect — now.
(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)
June 6th, 2008 at 12:04 am
Bottom line, with Palin as VP, McCain WINS.
Without Palin, McCain likely does not win.
Case closed.
June 7th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Q&A How can McCain SIMULTANEOUSLY attract both Hillary AND Bob Barr voters? Answer: PALIN Veep!