Okay, it’s time to take a look at Senate races out there and where they stand, in terms of the GOP risk of losing seats.

Virginia: The State’s two immediate ex-Governors are going against each other, but it’s not even close. The latest Rasmussen poll has Warner by 27 points, while the PPP poll has him up by 31. Barring Former Governor Mark Warner being called to run as Obama’s VP, Former Governor Jim Gilmore is most likely toast. Certain Democrat Pick-up

New Mexico: Rep. Steve Pearce’s (R-NM) numbers against Tom Udall have been nearly as bad, with Udall’s lead in the low 20s. The only thing he has going in his favor is the support of Club for Growth and really members need to dig deep to help him out in the Fall. For the Club to involve itself in the Senate primary and then see the candidate suggested go down in flames: 1) weakens the Club’s external credibility, 2) hurts its internal credibility in terms of finding competitive candidates. Of course, some New Mexico Republicans might want to blame the Club for a November loss. Completely unjustified. Wilson trailed by more. Almost Certain Democratic Pick-up.

New Jersey: A little talked about race, but it may be a sleeper for Republicans. Four-Term Senator Frank Lautenberg survived a primary challenge, but one Rasmussen poll showed this a 1-point race. It may not be that close, but Lautenberg is vulnerable. His challenger, Former Congressman Dick Zimmer may not be a Conservative sweetheart, but he’s barely more liberal than McCain and if Obama is the President, someone who votes 60% conservative could counterbalance a lot of politices. However, I have to say that New Jersey has a tendency to give Republicans false hope in Senate races. Nearly every race there is close and it’s been 36 years since Republicans won one. Still, put this one as a sleeper that Republicans could win if Zimmer does things right and Lautenberg makes a few mistakes. Likely Democratic Retention.

New Hampshire: Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has a double digit lead on Senator John Sununu (R-NH) in recent polls. Sununu has several million dollars more in the bank than Shaheen and plans to re-introduce himself to voters. In tough year, Sununu has a fighting chance. Leans Democratic Pick-Up.

Colorado: The latest Rasmussen Poll has Congressman Mark Udall up by 9 over conservative Bob Schaffer. The state’s been trending Democratic in the last two years, but Schaeffer is probably a stronger and more appealing candidate than past Republicans. Still, it’s an uphill climb. Leans: Democratic Pick-Up.

Louisiana: The Democrat’s most-at risk seat. Polls show Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA.) clinging to a narrow lead in a state where Democratic elected official incompetence at State and local levels was a huge contributor to the Katrina crisis. Given the normal Democratic trend of the year that polls are so close, indicates that Landrieu has a fight on her hands from Democrat-turned-Republican John Kennedy. Slightly Leans Democratic Retention.

Alaska: Senator Ted Steven (R-AK) is nip and tuck with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begitch (D) and is dogged by corruption charges. The question of which party will retain this seat may be answered later this Month when Alaska hold its primary. Former Alaska Representative David Cuddy was within 15 points of Stevens in a poll conducted last month, but Cuddy now has several opponents for the anti-Stevens vote. If Cuddy can win the Primary, he probably will probably best Begitch in the poll. But if Stevens emerges weakened but not defeated (particularly with less than 50% support in the GOP primary), it could be another matter. Toss-Up.

Mississippi (Special): Former Senator Trent Lott did his party no favors when he left his Senate Seat 1 year after being re-elected. Now new Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) is left in the fight of his political life against Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. And the polls tell us nothing other than the race is extremely close. Toss-up.

Kentucky: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has a race on his hands against millionaire Bruce Lunsford (D). With the political blood of Ernie Fletcher on the floor, McConnell can’t take his own re-election effort for granted, which will hurt his ability to raise funds for other Republicans even though recent polls given McConnell a slight edge. Leans Republican Retention.

Maine: Senator Susan Collins (R-ME.), one of the Senate’s more liberal Republicans has had her lead over Congressman Tom Andrews (D-ME) shrink over the past three months from 16 points in the April Rasmussen poll to 10 in May, and 7 in June. The question is if Andrews has a hit ceiling or if he can turn out a 2-tearm incumbent. Leans Republican Retention.

Minnesota: The danger to Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN)’s re-election has gone down considerably after issues with Al Franken’s taxes came out, tarnishing his image. Note to Democrats: Send in the clowns is a great Sinatra song, but makes for a lousy Senate candidate selection process. Leans Republican Retention.

Oregon: Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR) may still face trouble this fall, but polls have indicated a fair-sized lead for Senator Smith, who in a recent ad touted his ability to work across party lines with Barack Obama. This probably indicates Smith’s sense of the political situation in Oregon, and he’s a good judge of it. Leans Republicans Retention.

North Carolina: Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) was said to be near the top of Democratic target lists among incumbents. However, she’s gotten out to a solid lead and barring a major stumble should be fine. Likely Republican Retention.

My prediction for U.S. Senate: Democrats +4.

Onto the Presidential race and I only have one change to the map. Based on a huge amount of date, I can no longer consider North Carolina certain McCain territory. I’ll have it as leans McCain, but with most polls showing the race in North Carolina 4 points or less, I can’t say its certain. My  electoral map of certain states gives McCain a 201-200 advantage. You can view it here as it won’t display on F3 Coalition.

My general map is 252-238 Obama with 48 electoral votes undecided when taking into account leaners.