I’ve had New Hampshire as leans McCain for some time. However, the recent polls have not been in McCain’s favor. The last two Rasmussen polls showed Obama leads of 5 and 11 points respectively. The latest University of New Hampshire poll shows an Obama lead of 3 points. While none of these are conclusive and my gut says McCain has a fighting chance in New Hampshire with all the time he’s spent their over the last eight years, I think it’s appropriate to move New Hampshire to toss-up status. That leaves Obama ahead by a 269-245 margin with Ohio and New Hampshire as toss-ups:

Single Polls

People love to get excited about one state polls. This week has had two polls that have risen Conservative hopes. A Rasmussen Poll has John McCain up 10 in Ohio while a Detroit News poll showed McCain within 2.

These polls are interesting, but polls vary from one poll to another by a great margin. I place no stock in a single poll. For example, a PPP poll released just the day beforeshowed Obama up by 8.  You have to look at the trend line. When I see poll after poll after poll pointing in the same direction, that indicates something. If I see polls pointing different directions, it suggests a fluidity in the race or a need for more information. If people could read polls reasonably, perhaps they wouldn’t be going up and down as if they were on Prozac as each poll gets released.

What’s the Matter with Nebraska

John McCain is going to do serious work in Nebraska. What’s the matter? Nebraska was a huge state for George W. Bush where Bush won by 33 points. To be fair to McCain, it’s not so much that he’s in trouble in Nebraska as a whole, but in the 2nd Congressional District. Nebraska is one of two states that divies up their electoral votes by Congressional District.

McCain has also appeared in the State of Maine, where he has the endorsement of both State’s Senators in hopes that he might be able to snare the vote of one Congressional district.

This brings up an interesting point. In most of the country, arguments against the electoral college center around the idea that the Presidential race is fought in about 25% of the Country. Many States from Alabama to Wyoming, including several large states such as California, New York, and Texas do not get much attention. Rather than chucking the electoral college, why don’t more states go to the system held by Nebraska and Maine?

States all across the country that will go one way or another at the State level have many swing congressional districts. If you want to see Presidential candidates and campaigns working all over the country, this is the way to go. If you abolish the electoral college as a whole, what you’ll get is a concentration of campaigning in Metropolitan areas as well as rampant corruption in those cities to gin up the vote total.

What’s wrong with doing the Electoral Votes by Congressional Districts? First of all, if implemented on a national scale, it would lead to a huge Republican advantage. In 2000, had this method of voting been used, Bush would have won 288 electoral votes rather than 271. In 2004, Bush would have won 317 electoral votes, rather than 286 electoral votes. Democrats’ popular vote comes from huge advantages in urban congressional districts, while Republican Presidential Candidates win in more districts by a smaller margin. 16-29 electoral votes heading to the Republicans isn’t going to gain bi-partisan support. And when it’s proposed in individual states, it’s usually for partisan advantage: Democrats in Colorado and North Carolina, and Republicans in California.

And no one, particularly the Chairman of the DNC, wants to see this spread. This is why last year, Howard Dean decided to stop a Democratic-led bill to divy up North Carolina’s electoral votes by Congressional Districts for fear that it would strengthen an effort to do the same in California. Democrats would probably get five or so Districts out of North Carolina in exchange for 20 districts in California. This would be the equivalent of giving up Ohio to win West Virginia.

Thus, pure politics will probably keep electing electors by Congressional district game strictly a two state deal, despite the practical benefits.

Podcast Show Notes 

 Obama’s Young Evangelical outreach prepares to heat up. 

Plus can we afford to be upset and not elect Obama, asks his wife.  (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

McCain fights back against the media machine that made him and then turned on him.  

Why are conservatives thrown under the bus right and left while former Mexican government official Juan Hernandez continues to ride the straight talk express?  

Earmarks cost American lives in Iraq.  

An abortion-free day in South Dakota.  

An ironic move by Planned Parenthood. 

Plus if Planned Parenthood wants to be like Lens Crafters, why can’t they pay taxes like them. (Hat Tip: Right Mind.)

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