John McCain has gained in the polls in recent weeks, but I still don’t think he’ll win in the end and his latest ad, “Broken” illustrates why.

In 2004, Bush announced his immigration plan and conservatives were ticked. Bush played down the immigration plan and focused on Social Security Reform, Tax Reform, Judges, and the War on Terror. He won. He didn’t spend the general election thumbing his nose at the base.

In his latest ad, McCain declares himself the original maverick and promises to battle “big oil.” Not only does McCain’s running out the Maverick label tick off base voters who aren’t happy with him, his “I’ll take on big oil” meme is little more than feeding the Democratic rhetoric machine with the suggestion that “fighting” companies that provide our country energy is a solution to the energy crisis.

The ad is more than off-message as Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey writes, it is counter-message. Where Republicans and McCain have begun to gain is through a Republican stance of more drilling and an “all of the above” approach to energy.

If McCain were to focus on energy policy and experience from now until November, he’d have a shot at winning this campaign. In places like San Francisco, Chicago, New York, and Portland, Obama will play well, but in areas that are hurting economically and will decided this election such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Democrats have no plan that will ease the pain of people at the pump in the near-term or even in the next few years.

The American people want a solid plan to alleviate their pocketbook pain. What the Democrats offer is science fiction. They want us to wait for the infrastructure to be in place for Solar Power, Wind Power, and other fanciful ideas. This is not to say that these ideas will never work, but rather their practical applications are going to decades to implement. Science Fiction is a poor predictor of the near future.

There is no end in sight for the suffering of American consumers at the pump, other than an illusionary tax credit that will come from taxing the profits of oil companies, who will turn around and increase their prices on consumers in order to make up for lost profits. The weakness of the Democratic Party’s smoke and mirrors game is painfully obvious and ripe for McCain to exploit.

McCain, however, is a maverick, and his ad reminds conservatives that a big reason we don’t have a solid energy policy is party because of John McCain’s pandering to the media and the green lobby in opposing drilling. It furthers calls into question the sincerity of his latest policies.

McCain defenders will point to the President’s low popularity as justification for the ad. McCain certainly shouldn’t be embracing Bush, but the smart strategy is to ignore the President, not remind people that: 1) Things aren’t going well and 2) They elected a Republican president last time.

Also, it is utter folly to try and compete with Democrats on their own turf. I think Americans would like a President to actually make a positive difference for the American people, not just be a maverick. If they want a President to “fight” big oil, they’ll choose Obama, who will prosecute that fight far more vigorously than McCain while the cost of energy continues to rise.