I went to bed last night, fairly certain that the VP Pick would be Tim Pawlenty. But this word comes out of Minnesota:

ST. PAUL – Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will not be John McCain’s running mate.

The Republican governor told WCCO radio this morning that he is not the pick, and will host his weekly radio show from the Minnesota State Fair instead.

His comments end more than two years of speculation that he would run with his long-time friend, the Arizona senator who next week Republicans will nominate as their presidential candidate.

In an early-morning telephone interview with WCCO political reporter Eric Eskola, Pawlenty said he plans to conduct his radio show, which means he will not be in Dayton, Ohio, where McCain is to announce his vice presidential selection. When Eskola asked if that meant he would not be on the ticket, Pawlenty replied: “That is a safe assumption.”

Where does that leave us? It leaves us with a pick that is guaranteed to be somewhat unwise with chances of blowing up in McCain’s face.  For various reasons, this pick is going to appear to be stupid and unwise, but John McCain from all intents has decided to listen to Weird Al’s advice and has decided to dare to be stupid.

How stupid will the pick be? I think on a Stupidity scale from 10 (incredibly wise) to -10 (mind-blowingly stupid), Pawlenty was about a 0. The candidates mentioned out there range from the reasonable picks with a very serious flaw to absolute stupidity.

Governor Sarah Palin (R-Alaska)

Why She Makes Sense: Popularity rating in her home state higher than any elected official in the country with a reform image. She’s smart, good looking, conservative, truly pro-lie and a great lady.

Why She Doesn’t Make Sense: I love Sarah Palin as a political leader, she a fine lady.  A pick of Sarah Palin has a huge downside potential. McCain is running on the issue of experience. Sarah Palin would have the least major political experience of any major candidate for Vice-President since Sargent Shriver in 1972. It really would undercut the McCain campaign message of experience. If she’s inaugurated, in a period of less than 2 years, Sarah Palin would go from being the former mayor of Wasila, Alaska (pop. 8, 471) to being one heartbeat away from the presidency.  That’s very hard to sell, but if McCain wants a woman who will be acceptable to the conservative base, all he’s got is Palin and a few conservative members of Congress.

Stupid Scale: -0.5

Mitt Romney:

Why to nominate him: Exconomic experience, Karl Rove/National Reviews says so.  Also, he may help in Michigan and Nevada.

While I doubt McCain cares, this would be a great pick for Idaho. If Mitt Romney is the VP, then I think it’s safe to say that Idaho Republicans are going to have a good year. 

Why it’s stupid:  The probelm with Romney is that the DNC is ready to counter McCain’s attack ads on the Biden pick with those of their own. The McCain-Romney feud was quite bitter. Also, many conservatives simply don’t trust Romney, and there will be some people who will choose not to support the ticket on the basis of that lack of trust. You also have to question how effective Romney is going to be as a candidate. Look at what he spent in the primaries to lose. He spent tens of millions of dollars in South Carolina, got numerous major endorsements there and finished 4th. It was a disaster of a campaign given his expectations. Will voters in the general trust him more?

The wealth issue is important, too. McCain’s been hit on 7 houses, Romney is even richer. His experience at Bain Capital includes reorganizations which have meant layoffs and lost jobs. This is not the guy you want up there in an economy where people are hurting.

Stupid Rating: -2.0

Joe Lieberman

Why to Nominate Him: A truly bi-partisan ticket plus McCain likes Lieberman.

Why Not to Nominte Him: It’s an across the board offense to every part of the conservative based, other than the Neo-Cons. Plus according to some accounts, this will mean they’ll have to be a vote on the convention floor to change party rules about nominees being registered Republicans 30 days before the convention. That would be fun.  Expecting Republicans to vote for a Left-wing Cancer Survivor and a Liberal Democrat running mate is a bridge too far for most people.

Then we’d have 4 senators running for President, which would be incredibly stupid.

Add to this that Lieberman doesn’t bring along anyone that he wouldn’t bring along were he just endorsing the ticket and it really makes no sense.

Stupid Rating: -5

Tom Ridge

Why to Nominate: Could bring along Pennsylvania, “Moderate”, National Security Experience.

Why It’s Stupid: This even a worse choice than Joe Lieberman. Lieberman would not be running for President anytime in the future, so conservtives could psyche themselves out and vote for McCain hoping that McCain has really good health. Ridge indicate that if elected, McCain will have annointed a pro-choice moderate as the next leader of the Party. Ideologically and experience wise, there’s no need for Ridge. He didn’t have any eye-popping accomplishments as Governor and the odds of him swinging Pennsylvania are slim. (He hasn’t been elected to anything there since 1998.) Ridge is a poke in the eye and is ultimately going to depress the conservative base.

Stupid Rating: -7.5

Meg Whitman, CEO of Ebay

Why to Nominate Her: Business experience, Being a Woman

Why It’s Stupid: Meg Whitman combines the pro-abortion views of Tom Ridge, wealth that makes Mitt Romney look like a pauper, and absolutely no political experience. It would be as if McCain got up and asked himself, “How do we totally blow a winnable election?” If you nominate Meg Whitman, you’ll have found a very successful way to do it.

Stupid Rating: -9

Carly Fiorina

Why to Nominate Her: Same Reasons as Whitman

Why It’s Stupid: If McCain is looking for the Stupidest choice, it would be Fiorina, whose business performance record is far less successful than Whitman’s. Also unlike Whitman, Fiorina has a record of eliminating jobs and being generally unpleasant to work for. Fiorina makes no sense whatsoever, yet she’s been speculated on. With Carly Fiorina, we’ll have achieved something remarkable, a pick that will be written about for centuries to come. She’d reign supreme in the realm truly stupid VP picks.

Stupid Rating: -10