A couple interesting stories regarding Mike Huckabee hit the wire. First, Robert Novak reported that Huckabee wants John McCain to lose:
Huckabee’s announced support of McCain is unequivocal, and he is regarded in the McCain camp as a friend and ally. But credible activists are spreading the word that Huckabee secretly allies himself with the bitter-end opposition. That hardly seems possible considering his public backing, but critics of Huckabee’s 10 years as governor of Arkansas say he is all too capable of playing a double game…
Nevertheless, the word is that some evangelicals dispute Huckabee’s support. One experienced, credible activist in Christian politics who would not let his name be used told me that Huckabee, in personal conversation with him, had embraced the concept that an Obama presidency might be what the American people deserve. That fits what has largely been a fringe position among evangelicals: that the pain of an Obama presidency is in keeping with the Bible’s prophecy.
According to this activist, at the heart of the let-Obama-win movement is longtime Virginia conservative leader Michael Farris — the nation’s leading home-school advocate, who is now chancellor of Patrick Henry College (in Purcellville, Va.) for home-schooled students. Best known politically as the losing Republican candidate for lieutenant governor of Virginia in 1993, Farris is regarded as one of the hardest-edged Christian politicians. He is reported in evangelical circles to promote the biblical justification for an Obama plague-like presidency.
Mike Huckabee has emerged from obscurity to become a major factor in American politics leading evangelical Christians. The McCain campaign counts on him to energize supporters who would rather wait for Huckabee 2012, not to encourage those dreams.
Mike Huckabee responded unequivocallyat HuckPAC:
On another note, I was very disturbed by a column by Robert Novak that quoted some “anonymous source” in saying that while I strongly supported Senator McCain, I thought that maybe America “deserves Obama,” as if to say that I secretly hoped he won.
Where do people dream up this stuff? Forget the “anonymous” sources—there’s nothing anonymous about my stand and here it is. We don’t “deserve” Obama—we DESERVE a President with the character, convictions, experience, and wisdom to see the problems we face and try to lead us to solve them. We deserve a President who truly loves this country and from whom there is no doubt as to his respect for Faith, Family, and the kind of Freedom that those before us have given their lives to pass on to us. John McCain meets that criteria and that’s why I am campaigning for him and not hoping for Obama. The nonsense that I want Obama to win this year so I can run in 2012 is absurd. I love my country more than my own ambition. So let the record and truth be clear. And let the “anonymous” sources either show the courage to stand up and be accountable for their comments or shut up and leave commentary to people who aren’t afraid of their own shadow.
Huckabee is clearly ticked and the denial couldn’t be stronger. For what it’s worth, I think that when it comes to winning elections, Huckabee is like most Republicans. Whatever the problems with McCain, he doesn’t want Obama to win.
However, the story doesn’t end there. Because James Pethokoukis reports Huckabee is the frontrunner for VP and many economic conservatives don’t like it. Given the timing of the two stories, it raises some interesting questions. A cynical person might conclude that the religious conservative leader who spoke to Novak didn’t want Huckabee on the ticket and made the statement in order to cast doubt on Huckabee’s loyalty to stop McCain from putting him on the ticket. Good thing I’m trying to be less cynical or I’d be blaming the whole thing on Mitt Romney’s people.
That said, a McCain-Huckabee ticket makes sense for McCain. One has to take a look at the polls to see why Huckabee is needed. Barack Obama has been giving himself a series of self-inflicted wounds for week upon week surrounding cultural issues and where is McCain at? The latest Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls shows Obama up 4.5%. The national tilt of this election is toward the Democrats and McCain hasn’t been able to stop it. Republicans are unenthused with McCain’s campaign, he’s lagging behind Obama in fundraising.
McCain’s problem is that he inspires no one. There’s going to be a lack of volunteers in the Fall. He’s not going to look as good as Obama in the debates. He hasn’t really been able to capitalize on Obama’s mistakes. Michelle Malkin rightfully pointed out that McCain has his own share of contempt for Americans.
I remain of the opinion that McCain will lose the popular vote. His only hope is to win the electoral college. Obama is most vulnerable in America’s heartland. Places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado, and Ohio hold the key to the election. McCain’s problem: While he currently leads the polls in Ohio, it was the narrowest big state in the last election and had there not been an anti-gay marraige Amendment on the ballot, the state’s votes would have almost certainly have gone to John Kerry. Given the current state of the economy, it’s likely to end up falling to Obama.
Of course, Obama may not need Ohio. If he holds America’s blue states, he could win Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada, he would be the next president. If Bob Barr is the libertarian nominee, Obama winning Nevada becomes a foregone conclusion.
Of course, winning the presidency without bellweather states like Missouri, Kentucky, and Ohio would be odd.
This is where Huckabee could help. Huckabee has often been described as a regional Southern Candidate. However, his wins in places like Iowa and Kansas, as well as his strong finish in Missouri suggest he is as one commentator suggested, a heartland candidate. The key for McCain will be winning the heartland of America and Huckabee is an assett.
Huckabee would also help McCain in terms of the dynamism and likability of the ticket. His ability to handle himself on the talk show circuit in an articulate manner will add something to a ticket that features John McCain as a grumpy old man.
Huckabee also has better political instincts than McCain. Huckabee may have ticked off Republicans in his career, but he didn’t make an art of it. He backed off amnesty and would be a valuable advisor if McCain would listen.
Some perceived negatives aren’t there. There are many economic conservatives who will not support a McCain ticket with Huckabee on it. However, most of the people who take that position were going to give McCain little more than their vote.
Huckabee will likely be able to get a sizable number of his supporters to volunteer for the campaign. The McCain campaign is likely to be outspent by a giant margin and Huckabee knows about how to fight. McCain and the GOP faces a passive aggressive stay home vote from Social Conservatives and Huckabee could combat this.
Concerns about Huckabee’s faith should be considered buried due to the Reverend Wright scandal. To attack Huckabee’s religious beliefs and statements would no doubt lead to a resurrection of Reverend Wright, and none of Huckabee’s statements or beliefs come close to the offensive level of Obama’s pastor.
The risk for McCain in choosing a former rival for Veep has had mixed result. The last two candidates to do this Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004 found the strategy unsuccessful. In part, the presence of a former Rival on the ticket reminds some people that they would really want the Veep candidate as President and makes them think less of the nominee. You can’t afford to be overshadowed by your nominee. If you’re in camp McCain, Do you really want people to walk away from the Republican Convention talking about how great Huckabee’s VP acceptance speech was?
As for Huckabee, the Veep ticket could do great harm to his political career. If McCain/Huckabee were to lose:
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The conservative media establishment would lay the blame on Huckabee. “If only McCain had chosen someone else…” would be the mantra. Of course, the same people will blame Huckabee regardless. If Huckabee were to turn down a VP offer, he would be labeled a selfish person who cost the election. And the Novak story sets up a scenario if a Huckabee isn’t nominated for VP where Huckabee is given responsibility for the loss because of a private lack of enthusiasm for McCain that suppressed traditionalist voters.
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Huckabee’s 2012 campaign would be harder. Because of the blame that would go with being on the ticket, getting nominated would be difficult. After being Gerald Ford’s VP pick in 1976, Bob Dole was pulvarized in 1980. Former Vice-President Dan Quayle had to drop out after being beaten by Alan Keyes at the Iowa Strawpoll. If losing the Presidency is a great way to get the Republican nomination for President, losing the Vice-Presidency is a great way not to get it. The only losing VP candidate to be elected President: 1920 Democratic VP nominee Franklin D. Roosevelt.
If McCain/Huckabee wins:
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He is saddled with being McCain’s man. This means that all or almost all of the things McCain does to tick off conservatives, Huckabee will have to defend. One would hope that as President Bush has let Dick Cheney publicly dissent from his position in support of the Marriage Amendment, that Huckabee wouldn’t be left in a position to defend Embryonic Stem Cell Research, but you never know with McCain. In addition, a McCain/Huckabee administration would resurrect talk among conservatives that there was a secret conspiracy between the two during the primaries.
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Likelihood of becoming President increases if he’s elected VP, but it could be a hard road. Since the FDR/Truman years, no party has held the White House for more than 12 years. If McCain steps down after one term or two, the odds of Huckabee keeping the Republicans in the White House for a 4th or 5th consecutive term would be thin, and if Huckabee loses as the party nominee, there won’t be a second act.
Bottom line: A VP nomination probably does more harm than good for Mike Huckabee’s plans and career goals, but it’s the best chance McCain has.